Prigozhin’s media empire was conceived as a contractor that would perform functions for the state while remaining under external management. But it turns out that receiving billions of dollars in taxpayers’ money is no guarantee of either effectiveness or loyalty.
The aspiration of former Ukrainian politicians working in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine to be treated as equals by the Kremlin has not been realized, and the unpredictability of the ongoing war makes them increasingly vulnerable.
This model of a hybrid totalitarian state and semi-mobilized society appears to be entirely acceptable to the average Russian. Certainly it’s possible to adapt to this model, including economically: a gradual decline in people’s living standards has been the norm ever since the economy started stagnating back in 2014.
Imagining history as a civilizational competition is convenient for the current Russian leadership because it means they can perceive themselves as part of a young civilization and, as such, they don’t need to calculate risks, invest in the economy, or conduct a reasonable foreign policy. Youth is forgiven everything, and Russia will inevitably, therefore, be a world leader.
It is in both countries’ interests to cooperate, since each can provide the other with something in short supply: Russia needs artillery shells for its war, while North Korea needs humanitarian aid.
Trade volumes between Russia and African nations have fallen since the last event in 2019, while the war in Ukraine and Wagner’s activities on the continent have strained political ties.
When the war ends, Russia will face at its borders two militarily committed, capable neighbors facing a common enemy. Poland and Ukraine are bound together more strongly than at any other time in history.
The person who suffered most of all from Prigozhin’s uprising was Putin. However confident the Russian president may feel in the aftermath, he messed up. He created a monster that escaped from his control and spooked the elites.
The Carnegie Politika Podcast delivers world-class analysis on what’s happening in Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia. Every month, Russia expert Alexander Gabuev talks to Carnegie scholars and regional analysts on the ground to respond to emerging regional trends, the future of Russian geopolitics, and how the region is shaping the world.
By using this website, you agree to our cookie policy.
Please note...
You are leaving the website for the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy and entering a website for another of Carnegie's global centers.
