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But if Ukraine joins the alliance, NATO will have to engage in serious military planning in ways it did not for the Baltic states.
Deterrence clearly failed in Ukraine. In the run-up to Russia’s invasion in February 2022, America and its NATO allies took steps to warn Russia of dire consequences, including deep sanctions and political excommunication. None of that mattered to Vladimir Putin.
Advocating for Kyiv’s membership doesn’t make sense without addressing Article V guarantee credibility.
After Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian elites acted as if the war had not really changed anything on the home front.
The aspiration of former Ukrainian politicians working in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine to be treated as equals by the Kremlin has not been realized, and the unpredictability of the ongoing war makes them increasingly vulnerable.
Bianna Golodryga speaks with Russian analyst Alexander Gabuev and former State Department official Karin von Hippel about the latest in Russia's war in Ukraine.
But Russian aggression was the impetus for the new membership bids.
New mobilisation law is part of a wider effort to maximise Russia’s firepower and blunt western support for Kyiv.
The West is best served by backing Ukraine’s way of war, by exploiting its advantages in defense-industrial capacity (including ammunition production) and the quality of its weapons. Help Ukraine to fight the way it fights best.
When the war ends, Russia will face at its borders two militarily committed, capable neighbors facing a common enemy. Poland and Ukraine are bound together more strongly than at any other time in history.