Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
But if Ukraine joins the alliance, NATO will have to engage in serious military planning in ways it did not for the Baltic states.
Sanctions have not breached Russia’s economic fortress, but they have put a time bomb under its foundations.
Deterrence clearly failed in Ukraine. In the run-up to Russia’s invasion in February 2022, America and its NATO allies took steps to warn Russia of dire consequences, including deep sanctions and political excommunication. None of that mattered to Vladimir Putin.
Prigozhin’s media empire was conceived as a contractor that would perform functions for the state while remaining under external management. But it turns out that receiving billions of dollars in taxpayers’ money is no guarantee of either effectiveness or loyalty.
Advocating for Kyiv’s membership doesn’t make sense without addressing Article V guarantee credibility.
After Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian elites acted as if the war had not really changed anything on the home front.
It is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to sweep unwelcome developments under the carpet. The war has begun to change Russia, and profound internal shifts are likely underway—in Putin’s regime, in the elites’ perception of Putin, and in the public’s attitude toward the war.
The aspiration of former Ukrainian politicians working in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine to be treated as equals by the Kremlin has not been realized, and the unpredictability of the ongoing war makes them increasingly vulnerable.
This model of a hybrid totalitarian state and semi-mobilized society appears to be entirely acceptable to the average Russian. Certainly it’s possible to adapt to this model, including economically: a gradual decline in people’s living standards has been the norm ever since the economy started stagnating back in 2014.
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